War in Somalia, as of December 21st

Anyone noticed that on 21st Dec Somalia and Ethiopia formally declared war on each other and began a war of hostilities! Perhaps not because the two sides have traded war declarations on several occasions before so no one takes them seriously any more - or they just think its another african conflict and they are always at each other's throats. Somalia & Ethiopia have a long history of skirmishes in the south of Somalia over land and ethnic groups , religion, and boundaries. The same things have been fought over for years so why should now be any different!

The interim Somali government had a tiny plot of land in Somalia and yet call themselves the official government - as recognised by the UN. They are based in one small city called Baidoa, and are currently encircled by the Islamic Courts. Somalia itself is in choas with no recognized central government authority nor any other feature associated with an established independent state. And so Ethiopia sent in troops to supposedly protect the interim gov and sort things out. What a mess!

It's interesting to note a few facts that perhaps might tip the balance

• Eritrea is possibly involved (there are reports of 2,000 troops in Somalia though it denies this)- Ethiopia's long term enemy, and an ardent supporter of the Islamic Courts Union
  
• The West supports Ethiopia, as it seeks to support the interim government that has been set up to rival the Islamic de facto one (Islamic Courts Union). The AU has also shown sympathy for Ethiopia in that it is protecting its sovereignity.
  
• Ethiopia is worried about a hard line Islamic militant state on its doorstep and their claims to have rights to a portion of land in Ethiopia.
  
• The Islamic courts made a worldwide appeal for Muslim mujahideen to come fight for their cause and there are possible reports of 8,000 foreign fighters already in Somalia.
  
• Ethiopia has MiG fighter jets (where did they get those from??), 4 attack helicopters and 20 Ethiopian tanks - will that make a difference?

International law has gone out the window so debates over legitimacy of war etc in a way aren't worth having as neither side cares. Since they don't start by the rules, they may well not play by the rules - hence there are already reports of high casulties. On top of that comes all the usual problems both Somalia and Ethiopia have with famine etc and so Kenya might be getting a lot of refugees near in the future!

Questions for discussion:

1. Will this fighting produce a different outcome that previously - i.e will the interim Somali government be crushed and the whole of Somalia go under Islamic Court control? What will the UN do then? Or will it merely be a war of attrition, balancing the situation out.
   
2. Will the UN/AU send in peacekeepers - keep Black Hawk Down and the disastrous UN mission in the 90's in mind and the answer would probably be no!